Indonesia's Naturalization Puzzle: When FIFA Rankings Are Not a World Cup Ticket

Hook

On a June evening, I sat in a small café in Liverpool, opening my laptop to watch a video sent by an Indonesian colleague. It showed hundreds of fans in red-and-white jerseys flooding the streets of Jakarta after the national team won a friendly. They sang, they cried, they raised the Garuda flag high. Not because they had just won a major tournament. They were celebrating because the national team's FIFA ranking had just jumped 31 places.

I looked at their faces through the screen, then glanced back at the stack of documents I had just received from a source close to the Indonesian Football Federation (PSSI). There were three names on the upcoming naturalization list, three Indonesian-heritage players currently playing in Europe. And at the bottom of the page, a note: "Mees Hilgers is facing heavy criticism from Gertjan Verbeek."

I closed my laptop. Because I knew this story was not as simple as it appeared. A soaring FIFA ranking is not a ticket to the 2030 World Cup. And naturalizing three heritage players is not the answer to the tactical puzzle facing coach John Herdman.

Context

The Indonesian national team is going through what local media call the "Erick Thohir era." Since the PSSI chairman took power, the Garuda squad has made significant progress in rankings. The 31-place rise is a milestone that any football federation in Southeast Asia would dream of.

But the story does not stop there. Coach John Herdman, who once led Canada to the 2026 World Cup, is continuing to find ways to strengthen the squad. According to close sources, the English tactician is opening opportunities for Indonesian-heritage players—those competing in Europe—to wear the national team jersey. The goal is clear: the 2030 World Cup.

However, there is one notable detail that few people notice. The Asian Football Confederation (AFC) has given special attention to the careers of several Indonesian national team players competing in European competitions. Among them is Mees Hilgers, a center-back who just moved from FC Twente to SC Heerenveen. And this very player has just faced public criticism from Gertjan Verbeek—former Heerenveen coach—who said Hilgers "cannot be relied upon."

Core

Based on my experience following matches over the past 35 years, I can say that the most important thing here is not how many players Indonesia naturalizes. The core issue lies in building a squad based on individual dependency rather than a sustainable tactical system.

Look at how Herdman operates. He is not changing the tactical formation, not adjusting pressing, not creating a new football philosophy. Instead, he chooses to add personnel—and specifically naturalized personnel. This is like trying to fix a running car by replacing the engine instead of checking the entire drivetrain system.

The 31-place FIFA ranking rise is an outcome metric, not a process metric. It does not tell us how well Indonesia played, who they faced, or whether they won meaningful matches. A team can climb the rankings quickly if they win many friendlies against weaker opponents or benefit from favorable confederation weighting. But that does not mean they are ready for the grueling World Cup qualifiers in Asia.

Look at the case of Mees Hilgers. This is a young center-back with potential, playing in the Dutch league—a competition of good quality. But when a veteran coach like Gertjan Verbeek publicly says he "cannot be relied upon," that is a warning signal. Verbeek is not someone who speaks idly. He has worked at multiple European clubs and has a sharp eye for talent.

This raises the question: If a center-back expected to become Indonesia's defensive pillar is being doubted for reliability, will naturalizing three more players solve the root problem? I do not think so. Because the root problem is not about the number of players, but about the quality of the youth development system and the team's tactics.

Look at how other Asian teams operate. Japan has hundreds of players competing in Europe, but they do not build their national team on naturalization. They build from a structured youth development system, from the J-League to schools. South Korea does the same. Even Qatar—host of the 2026 World Cup—despite using many naturalized players, still has a massive Aspire Academy as its foundation.

Indonesia is following Qatar's path but without a comparable youth development system. They are trying to buy success through naturalization, forgetting that the most sustainable football is built from within.

Contrarian

Now, I want to offer a counterintuitive perspective. Perhaps the AFC's special attention to Indonesian players in Europe is not the positive sign many think it is.

Think about this: When the AFC pays attention to a player, they are not merely observing. They are evaluating, analyzing, finding weaknesses. If Indonesia has many players competing in Europe, it means regional opponents can also study their style more closely. The AFC's attention can be a double-edged sword.

The biggest blind spot in this story is the neglect of domestic players. When you naturalize three European-heritage players, you send an implicit message to young Indonesian players: "You are not good enough." This can create frustration, even fractures in the dressing room. I have witnessed this happen in many different teams around the world.

Remember what happened to the Philippines national team when they mass-naturalized European-heritage players a decade ago. They had some success, but then stalled due to a lack of youth development foundation. Now, they are rebuilding from scratch.

As for Hilgers, I want to say that Verbeek's criticism may not be a bad thing. It could be a necessary wake-up call. If Hilgers truly wants to become Indonesia's pillar, he needs to prove Verbeek wrong. And the only way to do that is to show consistency and reliability on the pitch.

Takeaway

That alcohol lamp did not light up Anfield, but it lit up an entire season without spectators. And I wonder: Will this 31-place FIFA ranking rise illuminate Indonesia's path to the 2030 World Cup, or is it just light cast from an unverified dream?

The answer lies in how Herdman and PSSI handle the naturalization puzzle. If they continue to rely on buying success from outside without building a foundation from within, I fear this journey will end in tears. Football is the only place where adults are allowed to cry like children without explanation. But to cry with joy at the World Cup, Indonesia needs more than naturalization cards.

They need a system. They need a philosophy. And they need time—something modern football never has enough of.

Each passing season is a closed book; careful readers will find themselves within it. For Indonesia, the book is still open. But the next pages will determine whether this is a success story or a lesson in haste.

As for me, I will continue to follow. Because I no longer chase the ball like Mbappé, but I have learned to chase its story. And Indonesia's story is still in its early chapters.